09/04/09
As noted below, about seven of every eight American cities have weaker budgets this year.
From Shopping Centers Today Newswire:
Sales tax revenue is more vital than ever to fiscally strapped municipalities, according to the National League of Cities. The organization reports that 88 percent of U.S. cities say they are fiscally weaker this year than last year. On average, city governments face budget gaps of 2.9 percent this year, on expectations of average sales tax declines of 3.8 percent and income tax shortfalls of 1.3 percent. Fallen property values, meanwhile, are hitting too. Cities will be in even worse shape next year, the league says in its report, which draws on data from the finance chiefs of 379 American cities with populations of 10,000 or more.
[More]
Texas cities rely more on property taxes than sales taxes but many do strongly benefit from sales taxes. Garland has traditionally not been particularly sales-tax dependent because we didn't have significant sales tax revenue. That has changed some over the last few years since approval of beer and wine sales, the opening of the Firewheel Town Center, and Bass Pro. Now lower sales are felt more:
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Garland Sales Tax Revenue
Percentage Change by Month from Prior Year |
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The story is similar across the Metroplex but we are doing a little worse (third chart) than several of those cities, which wasn't true in other recent recessions.
Typically, there is a lag of at least 18 months before cities begin to feel the effects of economic conditions, specialists say. “Cities face the burden of confronting the effects of the downturn for years after any recession ends,” said Michael A. Pagano, dean of the College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, a co-author of the report.
That latter quote from the same article is particularly appropriate. When you are in a hole and things level out, you're still in a hole. If things get better, you can work your way out of the hole but it takes time. Typically, according to research by Bryan Bradford, Garland's director of budget and research, that's a three-year process, judging by recent recessions. However, Bryan isn't as "optimistic" this time. He sees a five-year climb out of the hole once things turn around.
We haven't necessarily seen the bottom of this recession yet. Today's employment news has worsened; unemployment is the highest in 26 years. We probably aren't at the bottom. When we are, the climb out will be slow and lengthy.
It is important to understand that we have challenges, that we have been facing those challenges, and that we'll have to keep our belts cinched for awhile.
Like in the story of the Grasshopper and the Ant, "It is best to prepare for the days of necessity." We are in a challenging position but we have prepared pretty well, better than many other cities.
[District 1 July Crime Stats] [Contact Numbers—City Departments]
[The DMN Garland Blog] [Citizen's Request Center]
Oh, to Be In That 12% -
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