09/04/09
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Several weeks ago, I passed along the announcement that tolls would be increasing. I even offered some "well educated" thoughts on the matter:
It's perhaps ironic that the rate increase is being justified because of a traffic decrease. Economics 101 teaches that increasing the cost of travel will lead to even less traffic (less demand), exasperating the problem. Granted, there are a number of factors that can affect the elasticity of that formula and I don't have that information. If the decrease in traffic is solely due to the economy, the remaining users might be willing to absorb the increase rather than choose cheaper but slower and more congested routes. If drivers do find acceptable alternative routes, getting them back even with an improving economy will be a challenge. There is a traffic study due that will be based on the higher rates; it will be interesting to see if it contemplates these basic economic principles.
If the demand is "inelastic," so strong that price is not a significant factor, then the increased tolls would not have much effect on tollway traffic counts.
It's too early to say definitively but I learned at today's Dallas Regional Mobility Coalition meeting that traffic counts have changed little from pre-increase to now. While there are small variances, nothing shows that traffic has decreased overall.
It may be that drivers just simply aren't aware that they are paying more. Automatic collections could mask or delay driver awareness. It may start to sink in when they see bills that are suddenly higher.
However, it looks more likely that drivers didn't see the increase as enough to effect their driving preferences. That means a couple things: (1) traffic levels will remain the same but toll collections will increase, and (2) the tollway authority could raise rates higher without damage to traffic counts. The latter is kinda scary.
I do know that my use hasn't dropped an iota.
[District 1 July Crime Stats] [Contact Numbers—City Departments]
[The DMN Garland Blog] [Citizen's Request Center]
Toll Traffic Looking to Be Inelastic -
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